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Why Your Calorie Deficit Isn’t Working, And Why Tracking Still Matters (Even If It’s Not Perfect)

If you've been tracking your food, hitting the gym, and doing “everything right,” yet the scales won’t move, it’s frustrating. You’re not imagining it. There are real reasons your calorie deficit isn’t working, even if you're logging every gram and following your plan.

And it’s not because you’re lazy. It’s not because you’re “bad at dieting.”It’s not even because the calorie deficit concept is wrong.

It’s because the methods we use to measure calories, your equation, your app, your labels, your inputs, are all flawed.

But that doesn’t mean tracking calories is pointless. In fact, it’s the best tool we have for fat loss… as long as you use it properly.

Let me break it all down.

1. Your Maintenance Estimate Was Probably Off (Yes, Everybody’s Is)

Most coaches (myself included) use the Mifflin–St Jeor equation to estimate maintenance calories. It’s the most accurate formula we have, but even then:

  • It only gets roughly 70–80% of people within about 10–20% of their true maintenance.

  • That means your estimate could easily be 200–400 calories off in either direction.

So if you calculated your maintenance as 2,400 calories…Your actual maintenance might be 2,100.Or 2,700.

That alone can explain why your calorie deficit isn’t working.

This is why coaches tweak calorie targets after observing real-world data - not based on equations alone.

2. Food Labels Are Allowed to Be Wrong by 20%

In the UK and US, food manufacturers can legally be up to 20% inaccurate on calorie labels.

That means your:

  • “250-calorie” smoothie could be 300

  • “180-calorie” cereal bar could be 215

  • “100-calorie” bag of crisps could be 120

And that adds up quickly.If you eat 2,000 calories, the real number might be anywhere between 1,600 and 2,400.

When you understand this, it becomes obvious why people feel like their calorie deficit isn’t working.

3. User Error (Especially With Energy-Dense Foods)

Tracking is a skill, and beginners almost always underestimate intake.

The big offenders:


✔️ Peanut butter

✔️ Olive oil

✔️ Sauces

✔️ Nuts

✔️ Cereal

✔️ Cheese

If you weigh what lands in the bowl, you’ll underestimate it every single time.

Use the reverse weigh method: Weigh the jar → scoop → weigh again → log the difference. It includes what sticks to the spoon and what doesn’t.

This alone can “fix” many cases where someone thinks their calorie deficit isn’t working.

4. Raw vs Cooked Weights Can Change Everything

Tracking raw chicken? 100g = ~165 calories.

Tracking cooked chicken? 100g could be anywhere from 165 to 250 calories depending on moisture loss.

Similar story with:

  • Rice

  • Pasta

  • Potatoes

  • Beef

  • Oats

If you've been logging cooked weights inconsistently, your total intake could be hundreds of calories off per day.

5. MyFitnessPal Database Errors (It’s Crowdsourced!)

Most entries on MyFitnessPal are created by users.

Which means:

  • Some are wrong

  • Some are mislabelled

  • Some include fibre

  • Some don’t

  • Some show calories before cooking

  • Some show calories after cooking

And we often trust MFP like it’s gospel.

Tip: Use the verified entries only (the ones with the green tick).

6. Secret Eating and “Extras” You Forget to Log

Be honest with yourself. These things always throw people off:

  • A few extra crisps after the bag

  • A handful of nuts while cooking

  • Finishing your kid’s leftovers

  • A splash more oil in the frying pan

  • One more biscuit

  • A latte you forgot to add

Individually? Tiny. Collectively over a week? Hundreds of hidden calories.

If your calorie deficit isn’t working, this is often the reason.

7. Because Tracking Calories Isn’t Fun (And That Affects Accuracy)

Nobody dreams of weighing chicken at 9pm.

Nobody wants to track macros on holiday.

Nobody wants to scan every ingredient in a homemade curry.

And when tracking becomes annoying, we subconsciously:

  • Round portions up or down

  • Stop checking measured weights

  • Guess more often

  • Stop logging snacks

  • Stop logging weekends

Accuracy drops → results stall → you think the calorie deficit isn’t working.

So… If Tracking Is This Flawed, Why Do I Still Recommend It?

Because tracking isn’t meant to be perfect.vIt’s meant to be directional.

Here’s how I teach clients to use it properly:

1. Use Ranges, Not Exact Numbers

Instead of:

  • 1,950 calories

  • 150g protein

Use:

  • 1,750–2,150 calories

  • 130–170g protein

This accounts for:

  • label errors

  • app errors

  • cooking variations

  • human error

It also massively reduces stress.

2. Don’t Track Carbs and Fats

When you chase perfection, you fail.

Instead, track:

  • Calories (range)

  • Protein (range)

  • Fibre (approximate)

  • Steps (consistent target)

This keeps you consistent without obsessing.

3. Simplify Your Meal Structure

Your body loves routine. Your appetite loves routine. Your digestion loves routine.

When people track 30 different meals per week, results slow down because accuracy becomes impossible.

Instead:

  • Rotate 5–7 core meals

  • Track them once

  • Reuse them

  • Eat similar things at similar times

Consistency → accuracy → fat loss.

This fixes 80% of “my calorie deficit isn’t working” cases.

4. Tracking Builds the Skill of Awareness

Even if calories are imperfect, tracking teaches you:

  • What 30g of peanut butter actually looks like

  • The difference between 400 calories and 900 calories

  • How much protein is in your usual meals

  • How to build a balanced plate

  • What foods keep you full

  • What foods blow your calories

This is nutritional education, not dieting.

When clients stop tracking, these skills remain - and that’s what leads to long-term success.

Final Thoughts: Why Your Calorie Deficit Isn't Working

Here’s the truth:

You are not broken. Your metabolism is not broken. The calorie deficit isn’t broken.

The tools you’re using to measure your deficit simply aren’t accurate enough to rely on as an exact science.

But with ranges, simplified meal structure, awareness, and consistency, you’ll get all the results you want without obsessing over numbers.

Want Help Making This Simpler?

I coach busy 35+ adults to get lean, strong, and consistent, without the extremes and overwhelm.

If you want:

  • A simple nutrition plan

  • A structured training programme

  • Accountability

  • A coach who understands real life


Why your calorie deficit isn't working

 
 
 

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